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May 14, 2005
Saturday 14/5
Big day of racing on the Gold Coast and over in Adelaide, with a number of very open and interesting races before us.
Goodwood Handicap:
As usual, this is an extremely open and interesting race.
Super Elegant is a grand old fighter, but the combination of the 59.5 Kg and the widest barrier is, I think, going to be too much for him to overcome here.
Speaking of grand old fighters, on his last run, you have to rate Bomber Bill a pretty good chance here, having held out a good portion of the field that contests here today, and also going down in weight since his win. Top heavyweight S. Arnold takes the mount, and he should be right in it, although again the barrier is a concern.
Titanic Jack and Great Is Great are handy enough on their day, but haven't been sufficiently convincing in recent times to warrant their inclusion in the top chances.
As is usual in Adelaide, we find a few horses nowhere near G1 standard: Youth, Zip Zip Aray, Via De Lago, Marwin Gold, Songs of Vienna, Segments - although I suppose that is what handicap racing is about.
Foreplay is favourite, which is quite ridiculous, for a horse who has done absolutely nothing expect come third in a Newmarket in front of runners who would be more at home in a Class 6 at Sandown on a Wednesday than Australia's premier sprint. He was beaten the best part of two lengths by Our Quivira last start for crying out loud! I will say this - if Foreplay wins, I will quit writing for this site. He reminds me a lot of another Danehill 3YO, Danehill Express - all sizzle, no steak.
My selection is Ellicorsam, as questionable as we all know Perth form is, but she has quite a few runs on the board. Last year as a 3YO she came seventh, not a bad effort. Since then she has won four from five in a very convincing manner, two of them at group level. She is a front runner, and whilst a 20 horse race is unlikely to ever be run at a sluggish race, there is nothing which I would expect to go too crazy out in front. Super hot rider Dwayne Dunn gets the ride, and with only 52.5 Kg she is sure to give a good show.
General Bayton is a very consistent galloper and is well worth including in the multiples.
1 - Ellicorsam
2 - Bomber Bill
3 - General Bayton
Longshot: Solar Antiquity
SA Derby
In the previous race I made mention of overhyped and overrated Danehill three year olds - here is another to add to the list, the favourite for this race, Lions Gate. At least this horse has put in one impressive performance, in (I think it is called) the Geelong Classic. That was a long time ago however, and there has not been much of note from him since. There is some talent however, and he may show up.
Heavenly Pun has established himself as superior to most of the 3YO's who have come over from Melbourne since Saturday, but was beaten by Threedee on Saturday. As such, I'm going with pure logical formlines, and selecting Threedee to win from Heavenly Pun.
1 - Threedee
2 - Heavenly Pun
3 - Lions Gate
Prime Ministers Cup
I can't articulate this any better than what this man here has done:
http://www.justracing.com.au/index.php?news_page=1&artid=1491&catid=52
I think Perlin will win, but backing him at $1.90 is just silly. So, I'd have Tickle each way at about $7, coming off the back of a nice win at G3 level just start, and with a good record in the wet. Toulouse Lautrec will be better due to the wet track.
1 - Perlin
2 - Tickle
3 - Toulouse Lautrec
Longshot - Waltermitty (won four and placed seven times from nine on wet tracks)
Hollindale Stakes:
Cannot possibly see anything beating Roman Arch on a slow track. Special of the day, as long as he pulls up ok from his last minute flight. Special Harmony if the track dries out a bit.
Best of luck as always punters.
Posted by Tim in Gallop Tips at May 14, 2005 01:56 AM
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