This Saturday's racing is focused on Brisbane, which moves to the Eagle Farm leg of its Winter Carnival, in particular the Group 1 QTC Sires Produce, and the Group 1 QTC Oaks.

QTC Sires Produce

Virage de Fortune is the $2.80 favourite for this race, and it isn't hard to see why. She was quite brilliant beating most of these last start over 1200m at G2 level in the Champagne Classic, leading all the way and never looking in any doubt, winning by 2 1/2 lengths.

From barrier four it is hard to see the result going any other way, although the 1400m will probably be right on her limit (she is by Anabaa, who's progeny are genuine sprinters) she was going all right at the end of the 1200m last week to suggest it won't be a problem. Greg Childs is riding, funnily enough, he gets more rides at a top level meeting like this than he does at Sandown on a Wednesday.

It is pretty hard to look outside the main favourites in this race, as the form lines only really come out of two races, the Champagne and the Ken Russell at the Gold Coast, and I would agree with the bookies assessment that Foolish and Diamondondinside are the next best chances. I wouldn't take less than $2.80 on Virage De Fortune - I managed to get $3.25 while the going was good. The main threat to her is if she gets taken on by something like Darci Barhma in front - even if she does, I think Childs will be able to take a sit. I remember him riding another front running filly a while back, called Sunline from memory.

QTC Oaks

First things first, I would just like to write off the chances of the Lee Freedman trained Tick By. She is too far up in distance, too inexperienced, and too far up in class to possibly have a chance here. The $8 quote is quite ridiculous. I don't blame connections for having a go - there aren't that many chances you get to win a G1, even if they are pretty slim.

Speaking of writing off, there are a bunch of NZ horses having their first Australian start tomorrow, Felenic, Argyle Lass, Mercury Island, and Zaria. No chance. Likewise Glen Shian. That is six down, leaving nine chances, of varying degree.

One major form line for this race is the SA Oaks, from which the Tony Vasil trained pair of Irish Darling and Hveger come. The bonus with these two is that you can be sure they will get the trip. Irish Darling won the Australasian Oaks at 25-1, and then the SA Oaks. Drawn wide (which shouldn't matter much as she goes back) and loses the services of Paul Harvey, who has opted to ride in Perth, where the prizemoney for the card just about matches that of this race. It is always an interesting sign when a jockey does something like that - it is possible he doesn't rate her chances. Every chance on SA form, assuming she holds it.

Hveger is the sister of top liner Elvestrom. While she has yet to go near the heights of her brother, she has been improving with every start. If I was Tony Vasil, I would be instructing Blake Shinn to try and lead on her, as there doesn't seem to be much obvious pace in this one (although I cannot speak for the NZ horses), as he says, she is a 'grinding staying type' and as such it should suit her. Depending how much she has improved, and it's hard to know, could be right up there.

Favourite at this point is the Tony Wildman trained Cinque Cento, who has come from a Gosford Class 1 to an Eagle Farm Group 1 in two starts. No reason why she cannot hold others such as Ponte Piccolo, Vitesse Dane, Fiery Sunset, Aqua D'amore, Glen Shian who she beat in the Doomben Roses. CC also gains the services of Australia's best rider, Darren Beadman, which never hurts.

Of the NZ horses, the one which strikes me as having appeal is Prize Lady, based on her second in the NZ Oaks to She's Justa Tad, who subsequently came second (and looked like winning until the last 50m) She's Justa Tad. That tells us two things - 1. She will stay the distance. 2. To get within a length of She's Justa Tad, she must have some class. Presently 13-1, so well worth having a look at.

The abovementioned first five finishers in the Doomben Roses have to be some chance as well, especially with the distance query hanging over so many of these.

As usual with these races it is very tough, but if I had to back one it would Hveger each way ($12 currently), and I think boxing Irish Darling, Heveger, Cinque Cento, Ponte Piccolo and Prize Lady in a quinella gives you the chance of a decent result.

Other tips:

Sandown

1 - 2. Nehemiah.
3 - 9. Valkyrie Diva (don't take less than $2.70)
4 - 1. Stuyvesant.
5 - 3. Irish Belle.
6 - 1. Valedictum, 3. Sain Khapital.
7 - 1. Pantani.
8 - 2,3,5,7 box quinella.

All the best punters as always.