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June 07, 2005

Wednesday 8/6

Firstly a little post-mortem of Saturday...

Virage De Fortune got up, as I tipped, and was quite stunning in doing so. Certainly one to watch for the Spring. Eventually got out to about $3.80 after a big move on Testafiable, so the $3.25 wasn't quite as good as I'd hoped!

I wrote off Tick By in the Oaks, and true, she didn't win, but I msde a mistake I don't make often, and that was underestimating Lee Freedman. If she had a run over 2000m she may well have won.

Irish Darling and Hveger were both disappointing but they probably reached their peak earlier. Didn't get the quinella, but Prize Lady ran a nice race at good odds.

Also found two (admittedly short) winners at Sandown. Not a great result but not terrible.

Moonee Valley

Which is the real Wildly? At times this horse has shown outstanding ability, at others, nothing short of disgraceful. He has had a change of trainer since the Autumn (going to John McArdle from Rick Hore-Lacy) and should be ready to perform, as he has an excellent first up record. Group 1 winner of last Saturday Greg Childs has the mount, and I think this can only help. He has had one start at the Valley, and was beaten half a length into fourth.

Cos Snip is a very interesting runner, a typically speedy Snippets filly, having recorded four wins from nine starts, all those wins coming over the kilometre. She was well beaten last start but is substantially down in class, and has a tendency to mix her form.

On class these are the only two you would touch, but it isn't always about class, is it? I personally will back Wildly but I will be very cautious about tipping a horse to others whose form varies, pardon the pun, so Wildly.

Danerich should win the second, but by golly he will be short. Has run into smart horses such as Personal Ensign and Nehemiah in two starts in Saturday class. Back in class here, but I wouldn't want to back him, especially when you never know about some of these unraced horses. I don't think anyone who has lived by the mantra 'odds on look on' has ever lived to regret it.

Adding to the interest in this meeting is the third race for 2YO fillies. On last start form Noise Barrage should win this, strolling in at Sale by three and a half lengths. Another from the dominant Freedman stable. Another interesting runner is Swish Trish, a Redoute's Choice filly having her second start for Ross McDonald, after coming fourth in a fairly strong race back in January.

A few dour staying types will head round in the fourth, and good luck to them, but I think the best chance of finding a winner involves a a form guide and a dart.

Glasnost is clearly the classiest runner in the 4th, being a multiple city winner. She loves the Valley, loves the 1600, and after the claim for Jamie Mott will carry 57, significant but not insurmountable. She happens to be a half sister of our good friend Virage De Fortune.

House Mouse, Fly Me Home, and Any Dane Now for the field quinella.

Aftet this race, Little Miss Ruby is the only one which I like for the rest of the day.

Best of luck punters - back Friday for the Stradbroke preview.

Posted by Tim in Gallop Tips at June 7, 2005 11:38 PM

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