Melbourne

Form done for DEAD track...

Race 1

First 2YO race of the season, and unless you have serious inside information, better to just let it go by.

Race 2

Ferocity was outstanding beating the cream of Melbourne's 2YO sprinters last start. Pretty hard to seperate him and Perfectly Ready on form, as you can't really match up the formlines, but in my opinion as Ferocity has already demonstrated he likes the track, and is at better odds, we will stick with him. Races right on the pace which I like as well.

Race 3

Some fairly uninspiring dour staying types going around in this one, but I think that NSW visitor Brave Lancer should give a good show. Will handle the distance (has won over 2500) but has a hint of class about him as well. Swift Tango is the danger, but has 58.5 Kg to contend with. Throw Dakasha into the multiples.

Interesting fact about Southern Crown. He has had eight starts at 2500-2550m at Flemington, and won four of them. A bold showing would not surprise.

Race 4

Another really open race with a number of winning chances. Based on his last start 6th in the Craiglee, Refute has to be every chance here. A little bit up in distance, and some weight relief as well. Another Lloyd Williams / Danny Nikolic combination.

Noble Red is another capaable of a bold showing. Forgive last start when did not handle heavy going in G1 DRC Cup. Track-distance is ideal, and sting out of ground shouldn't hurt.

Kounthekash is a smart Freedman galloper who has been racing fairly well. Rise in distance suits as made good ground towards end of last race over mile.

Activation is better known for his role in the Nikolic suspension, but he has a good deal of ability. Didn't appreciate heavy ground last start, and arguably should have won or placed the start before (that's what Des Gleeson thought). Nikolic seemingly elected to take the mount on Activation, as you presume he would have the choice to ride on Refute, so that is some indication as to his thoughts.

Box these and the classy mare Uprize in a quinella. $10 for $1.

Race 5

Another Lloyd Williams/Graeme Rogerson/Danny Nikolic runner takes my fancy in the fourth, Dergegulate. This horse made good ground at the Valley, and the long sweeping straights of Flemington will suit him much better. Drawn the car park but he gets back so that shouldn't be a major drama. Gets 1.5 Kg off Vision and Power for being beaten less than two lengths. Major each way chance.

Race 6

Isanami finally gets her chance to win a nice race tomorrow, and it shouldn't be the last for her. Is looking for the mile, won't mind the dead track, and would have finished much closer at past few starts with an ounce of luck. Each way. Another really open race (noticing a trend?), major dangers being Cayambe, Flora Danica, Pure Harmony, and Empress Lily. May find it worthwhile to box up those as well.

Race 7

Another one of these nearly impossible mares races. They are great, but it doesn't make life easy for the punter. I think the QTC Oaks runner up Cinque Cento has every chance of running a bold race. The pace in these sorts of races is usually genuine, and I think she is more than capable of running on late to get a place and possibly to win. Very classy and should be fairly forward seeing as she is resuming this late. Each way.

Lake Charlotte is favourite but it is hard to judge the strength of her form lines - last start win was impressive, but that joke of a track at Caulfield, and it is an absolute bloody disgrace, makes me a little skeptical of the form - absolutely nothing made any ground - and before that she was lining up in midweekers. She might be very good, I just don't think you can really say either way. We should know after tomorrow.

Race 8

Now, as regular readers would know, I am not the worlds biggest Makybe Diva fan. I haven't backed her since her first Melbourne Cup win (and I have payed for it) but tomorrow I will be on. Flemington is the perfect track for her, she should relish the track and distance and be too strong for them. This will ensure we will get a price on Lad of the Manor in the Cox Plate. Mind you, anything less than $3 is a stupid price, and we shan't be taking it.

Race 9

My girl Virage De Fortune will win this. It won't be easy, but she is brilliant. Just a superb sprinter. If I get $4 I will be a happy man.

Race 10

Lieutenant will have to do everything right with 59.5 Kg, but he is a class above them here. Track, distance, and class are perfect. Forgive last run. Another each way.

I'm putting this up now as I anticipate I will take a while doing Sydney...