1. Mummify.

D. Nikolic/Lee Freedman

Weight: 57Kg

Odds: $18

Barrier: 20

Proven class horse of the field with no less than five G1 wins, three at Caulfield, and of course won this race in 2003. As he approaches his 50th start, the 6YO son of Jeune is racing as well as ever, as has been evidenced by his last start win in the Craven Plate at Randwick.

Nevertheless, with barrier 20, he will need luck attempting to cross the field to get into a forward position. However, he could possibly race a little off the pace, as he did in his Singapore victory.

Whilst he is a top quality stayer, the barrier, the hefty weight (57Kg), and his need for a bone dry track mean that I can't tip him here, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a big race.

2. Rakzalla

K. McEvoy/Saeed Bin Suroor

Weight: 57 Kg

Odds: $81

Barrier: 18

Stranger things have happened, but he looks to be using this race as a lead in to the Melbourne Cup, which he finished ninth in last year. I am not especially au fait with the international form, but I believe he is $81 for a reason.

3. Fight Your Corner

SCRATCHED

4. Eye Popper

S. Fujita/Izumi Shmimizu

Weight: 54 Kg

Barrier: 9

Odds: $61

Japanese horse with some very good 2400m form, and beat home Makybe Diva at his last start. Will hopefully go better than the other Japanese horses to come out here, but attempting to win the Caulfield Cup first up after a spell is extremely difficult. Knockout chance.

5. Plastered

P. Harvey/Lindsey Smith

Weight: 54 Kg

Barrier: 16

Odds: $5.50

Outstanding winner of 2004 VRC Derby and 2005 WA Derby (although the latter is not the strongest race) who has been solid without being spectacular this preparation. I think he's simply a little more dour than many had assessed him.

His last start run in the Turnbull was excellent, as he hit the line hard after encountering some trouble in the straight. It is somewhat unconventional to put a horse into a Caulfield Cup third up, but Lindsey Smith is an unconventional trainer - who gets damn good results.

Barrier 16 is going to make it very difficult for him, but if he can get a nice position one off the fence he should be charging home.

6. Carte Diamond

W. Marwong/Brian Ellison

Weight: 53 Kg

Barrier: 7

Odds: $31

The hurdler who has caused considerable controversy over his inclusion ahead of the likes of Lachlan River (who has subsequently gained a run as an emergency anyway). Has never actually won a Stakes race, and I can't see him doing so here.

7. Sir Dex

Z. Purton/Gregory Hickman

Weight: 53 Kg

Barrier: 1

Odds: $11

I think Sir Dex will be the first runner ever in the Caulfield Cup to have had his sire stand in Pakistan (he was here when he serviced Sir Dex' dam however), so that is a record if nothing else. Nevertheless, I think there is a good chance they may get something else as well!

Sir Dex' form at WFA this campaign has been outstanding, winning the Warwick Stakes first up over 1400m, a narrow second in the Chelmsford, then an outstanding third in the Underwood (when three wide all the way), and another fine run to be fourth in the Turnbull, beaten just over a length.

Going back to winter, he won the Prime Minister's Cup over 2400m at WFA on the Gold Coast. To be winning a Caulfield Cup, you want a horse with both speed and staying ability. Sir Dex has demonstrated both.

Barrier one is sensational, and I would expect him to be in the absolute box seat, one back off the leader, on a moderate tempo, where he will have ample opportunity to demonstrate his brilliant sprint (and you don't run over the top of Dance Hero and Court's In Session over 1400m unless you have that).

He gets 5 Kg weight relief from his recent performances. I believe that he will win, and that he represents the best value - if he was trained by Gai or Lee, had Boss or Oliver riding him, and was by Zabeel, he would be about $5 in my opinion.

8. Stella Grande.

N.Ryan/Lee Freedman

Weight: 52.5 Kg

Barrier: 10

Odds: $81

You simply could not back him on recent form. Won at G2 level and was second in the AJC Derby over Autumn, but has been beaten 9 lengths at his two last starts.

9. Railings

G. Childs/John Hawkes

Weight: 52 Kg

Barrier: 12

Odds: $11

Impressive winner of AJC Metropolitan. Metropolitan winners have a very poor record in the Caulfield Cup, and I can't see this changing. The thing is, assuming that the tempo is favouring the backmarkers, I cannot see him outsprinting say, Plastered and Dizelle to the finish line. D. Beadman opted for Dizelle, so we know who he thinks is a better chance of the two, and the opinion of Australia's best jockey is good enough for me.

10. Demerger

D. Dunn/Danny O'Brien

Weight: 51.5

Barrier: 11

Odds: $21

Won Adelaide Cup by seven lengths in the Autumn. Her performances this campaign have been good without being spectacular, and looks a very good Melbourne Cup chance. Will run on well but I can't see her winning, for the same reason I can't see Railings winning.

11. Dizelle

D. Beadman/John Hawkes

Weight: 51.5 Kg

Barrier: 21

Odds: $14

Has mixed her form this Spring, going 2/10/3/11. Mind you, she has excuses for her poor runs. In the Hill Stakes (10th) she was only beaten 2.3 lengths charging home off a slow tempo. In the Turnbull (11th) copped severe interference in the straight.

She will be at the very back of the field, but if anyone can weave his way through, it is Darren Beadman. Her one run over 2400m, was absolutely brilliant as she leapt out of the ground to win the AJC Oaks. Definite for the multiples, and if they are running on will be hard to hold out.

12. Hollow Bullet

V. Duric/John McArdle

Weight: 51.5 Kg

Barrier: 15

Odds: $51

Top 3YO who hasn't gone on with it as an older horse, althought wet tracks may have a little to do with it. Pretty much in the Railings basket - horse who even if they are running on won't have the class to go with Plastered, Dizelle etc.

13. Portland Singa

L. Cassidy/Neville McBurney

Weight: 51.5 Kg

Barrier: 6

Odds: $21

Won Brisbane Cup by two lengths in the Autumn. Her performances this campaign have been good without being spectacular, and looks a very good Melbourne Cup chance. Will run on well but I can't see her winning, for the same reason I can't see Railings winning.

If it looks like I substituted the word 'Adelaide' for 'Brisbane', and 'seven' for 'two', and copied the rest of Demerger's assessment, it is beacuse I did. These horses are twins in my opinion.

Their colours are almost identical, dark blue with diamond bands, Demerger's white and Portland Singa's pink.

In all seriousness, I think Portland Singa should definitely go in the multiples. She can take a forward position from barrier 6 and has been running on really well over shorter distances.

14. Vouvray

S. Seamer/Peter G. Moody

Weight: 51.5 Kg

Barrier: 14

Odds: $13

This mare really ticks all the boxes. Solid WFA form when marginally outclassed allows her to get very well in at the weights. If she had won any handicaps, you would call her a good old fashioned handicapper.

Has been running on well without being outstanding (is this a recurring theme?). Very good chance. Not a whole lot more to add. Should get back but not too far. S. Seamer is the right man to ride.

15. Wild Iris

Ms K. O'Hara/Guy Walter

Weight: 51.1 Kg

Barrier: 19

Odds: $31

Good to see the good young apprentice Kathy O'Hara get a ride get a go in a big race like this. Couldn't overhaul Mummify in the Craven last start and this is no easier. Can't see her outsprinting Plastered, Vouvray etc. $31 for a reason.

16. El Segundo

D. Gauci/Colin Little

Weight: 49.5 Kg

Barrier: 4

Odds: $3.50

Looking at his last start demolition of the Yalumba Stakes field, and bearing in mind his 7.5 Kg weight drop, El Segundo is the rightful favourite. All things being equal, he would win. But all things are not equal! I think the factors of the big field, the seven day back up, the step up to 2400m, make him no certainty, and certainly the $3.50 is a silly price. If he can put it all together, should win.

17. Irish Darling

D. Moor (a)/Tony Vasil

Weight: 49.5 Kg

Barrier: 3

Odds: $101

No chance. $101 for a reason. Disgrace she is in the field ahead of Natural Blitz.

18. Leica Falcon

C. Williams/Richard Freyer

Weight: 48 Kg

Barrier: 13

Odds: $7

The fairytale story of the cup if he can manage to win it. Very impressive winning the Winning Edge over 2400m last start. Has no weight to carry. Still, it is a massive class rise and despite the light weight I think it will be too much for him.

19. Lachlan River

S. King/John Morrissey

Weight: 51.5 Kg

Barrier: 17

Odds: $31

I keep coming back to this, but although I really like this horse, I cannot see him outsprinting the likes of Vouvray, Plastered and Dizelle to the finish line. Quality stayer who won the QTC Derby, but can't win here.

In summary, this race will be determined substantially by the tempo of the race. I cannot predict how the race will be run exactly, but suffice to say that if the following horses do not go forward, or at the very least midfield, they cannot win:

Stella Grande
Railings
Demerger
Hollow Bullet
Portland Singa
Wild Iris
Irish Darling
Lachlan River

I cannot recommend having anything on these horses.

Also, I cannot see any of the international horses winning, so you can eliminate the following:

Rakzalla
Eye Ppopper
Carte Diamond

This leaves us with the following horses, those quality horses who race on the pace, and the better of the backmarkers:

Mummify
Plastered
Sir Dex
Dizelle
Vouvray
El Segundo
Leica Falcon

Not coincidentally, these horses are the seven most favoured runners.

I anticipate a good track, but if slow or heavy, Mummify and Plastered can't win. Mummify can't handle dead either.

My selections:

Assuming an unbiased track: Sir Dex

Assuming on pace bias: Sir Dex

Assuming run on bias: Plastered

Final top five, anticipating a good track without any particular bias:

1. Sir Dex
2. El Segundo
3. Plastered
4. Dizelle
5. Vouvray

Best of luck, and I all hope that you enjoy what should be an absolutely fantastic race.