1. Greys Inn

5YO Horse

(Zabeel - Great Verdict)

Jockey: W. Marwing

Trainer: Mike De Kock

Barrier: 2

Odds: $16

Top class South African horse whose second behind Vengeance of Rain in the QE2 in Hong Kong is an outstanding form line for this. Sure to take a great deal of improvement from fourth in the Yalumba last start. Absolute must for the multiples, but not certain he has quite what it takes to win. Should get a nice run just off the pace.

2. Lad of the Manor

6YO Gelding

(Zabeel - Matrona)

Jockey: B. Johns

Trainer: Roger Hoysted

Barrier: 7

Odds: $10
Has been in outstanding form this preparation, winning the Liston and Feehan, and second beaten less than a length by Makybe Diva in the Turnbull. The two main factors in his favour are his love for the Valley, where he has won four from four, and the fact that he should be able to get a perfect run slightly forward from midfield. Running him down will be very, very difficult. Excellent winning chance.

3. Super Kid

6YO Horse

(Gaius - Pompeii Pride)

Jockey: N. Rawiller

Trainer: John Moore

Barrier: 5

Odds: $21

Two time Hong Kong G1 winner who has been very impressive coming second to Barely A Moment in both the DRC Cup and the Toorak, both when condeding substantial weight. However, a Cox Plate is a different proposition and I don't think he has quite what it takes to be competitive in a race of this class. General opinion of international racing experts (I don't claim to be one) is that he is a rung below the top flight. Should be safe to leave out but cannot write off completely.

4. Confectioner

5YO Gelding

(Bubble Gum Fellow - Princess Blue)

Jockey: C. Williams

Trainer: David Hayes

Barrier: 12

Odds: $18

One of the form horses of the Spring with a win in the Craiglee and placings in the Turnbull and Yalumba (the latter in which he was slaughtered by Williams). In my opinion, this horse is more a staying type who will be better suited by a longer distance, or a track such as Flemington when he has more time to wind up and put in a long sustained run. Also, with barrier 12 jockey faces the dilemma of going forward and possibly getting caught wide or going back and being forced to out sprint Makybe Diva and Xcellent. Can't see him showing up here. Get on now for the Sandown Classic!

5. Desert War

5YO Gelding

(Desert King - High Heels)

Jockey: L. Cassidy

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Barrier: 1

Odds: $18

Temperamental horse who seems to have got his mind back together in his last couple of runs, with wins in the Hill and Epsom in Sydney. I think he will will lead and the tempo will be moderate, so it will be a difficult proposition catching him. Against that, he may now handle the Melbourne way of going and lacks class in comparison to some of these others. One for the multiples.

6. Fields of Omagh

8YO Gelding

(Rubiton - Finneto)

Jockey: S. King

Trainer: David Hayes

Barrier: 10

Odds: $21

Grand old campaigner who has been going extremely well this preparation. Although he seems to show up every year, I don't believe that he has the scope to improve that some others do, and therfore I can't see him winning. Throw him in for third in your trifecta, but that's as far as I can see him going.

7. Tosen Dandy

Second in Cranbourne Cup at last start is all you need to know. Disgrace he is in the field.

8. Xcellent

4YO Gelding

(Pentire - Excelo)

Jockey: M. Coleman

Trainer: Mike Moroney

Barrier: 13

Odds: $7

He is the only horse in this field who I believe has the capacity to be a horse of the calibre of, say, if not a Kingston Town, then a Better Loosen Up or Northerly. I say this because his deeds on the other side of the Tasman already would put him in this class. Nevertheless, it is an entirely different proposition over here.

I am not as concerned as some by the wet track in light of his failure in the AJC Derby because firstly, a Heavy at Randwick is a vastly different proposition to dead/slow at Moonee Valley. Secondly, his preparation for the AJC Derby could be described as inadequate at best, flying in two days before, and thirdly, on his breeding, there is nothing to say he is a duck but also, nothing to say he will be a duffer.

His run in the Mudgway Stakes was simply outstanding, running over the top of a field headed by the classy Miss Potential, and in the Kelt on 1 October, he nearly got knocked over, recovered, overtook the field in a burst from the 500-300, then seemed a bit lost at the front but held on to win comfortably.

If he puts it all together, I believe he will win.

9. Outback Prince

4YO Horse

(Desert Prince - Terrestial)

Jockey: D. Beadman

Trainer: Anthony Cummings

Barrier: 6

Odds: $126

Not the worst horse in the race (second or third worst), but simply not good enough.

10. Makybe Diva

7YO mare

(Desert King - Tugela)

Jockey: G. Boss

Trainer: Lee Freedman

Barrier: 4

Odds: $2.15

Whichever way you look at it, the race centres around this superb mare. However, I have to admit I don't believe she is as good as she is made out to be, but that is another topic for another day.

To tell you something you don't know, she has been in great form this Spring, winning the Memsie, beaten a head in the Feehan, and winning the Turnbull.

On proven form she deserves to be the favourite, but the odds to me are massive unders. Firstly, this is a top line field with a good number of other winning chances. Secondly, coming from behind at Moonee Valley and navigating your way through a big field is never an easy proposition, and I think she really is a stayer who needs a long sustained run to get to her best, and isn't blessed with an outstanding turn of foot.

The horse most likely to win, but not the one I would be betting on.

11. Sky Cuddle

NO.

12. Lotteria

4YO Mare

(Redoute's Choice - Rose Reward)

Jockey: C. Munce

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Barrier: 8

Odds: $31

She can't win (sprinter-miler IMO) but is a very interesting proposition nonetheless as she will probably lead, or sit outside the leader. If they don't go too fast it will set things up for Lad of the Manor. If the pace is keen, it will help Makybe Diva and Xcellent.

13. God's Own

3YO Colt

(Redoute's Choice - Angel In Disguise)

Jockey: S. Baster

Trainer: Bart Cummings

Barrier: 14

Odds: $9

His Caulfield Guineas win was good but it wasn't as good as it was made out to be. Paratroopers stopped - he did not come through with a withering burst. The new Bel Esprit.

14. Hotel Grand

3YO Colt

(Grand Lodge - Terrestial)

Jockey: J. Ford

Trainer: Anthony Cummings

Barrier: 11

Odds: $13

Lucky to win Champion Stakes (I will go to my grave knowing Pendragon was a certainty beaten - thank you Rod Quinn). 3YO's have a generally poor record in this race and although he looks promising, I don't think he has what it takes to win here.

In summary, my selections are as follow:

1. Xcellent
2. Makybe Diva
3. Lad of the Manor
4. Greys Inn
5. Desert War

I think it should be a fantastic race whoever wins.

Best of luck punters.

Tim.

tim@insiderail.com