Race 1: Carbine Club Stakes.

Very open race to kick off the program. Won last year, of course, by Al Maher, who subsequently won the Australian Guineas in the Spring.

Deregulate is $3.80 favourite but I think that price is too short, and anyway, I don't think he is the best chance here. Was second last start to Headturner over 1800m on Turnbull Day, but the form of that race is I think, questionable. I think he is better suited to more ground as well. I concede, however, he is very well weighted with just 52.5 Kg on his back.

Testafiable finally gets a good chance to win here. Last start was 10th in the Caulfield Guineas, but owing to the massive interference and heavy track, that can be forgiven. Form before then was solid, competitive in the Manikato Stakes and beaten less than two lengths by outstanding Sydney 3YO Paratroopers over 1400m at Randwick. He faces a much easier task here and I think he is good value at $7.50.

Robechon, Letter of Intent, and Airstream coming out the Listed 3YO race over 1400m race on Caulfield Cup day will make their presence felt, but it is difficult to line up the form. Of those three I prefer Airstream, as he is the best weighted and was hitting the line hardest. Roubechon is a talented galloper, and the best in the business, Noel Callow takes the ride, but he is badly off at the weights.

Suggested bet: Testafiable (E/W).

Race 2: L'Oreal Paris Plate.

Queen of the Hill is a weighted certainty. Jet Spur and Stratum have to haul 60 Kg up the straight, and Ferocity 57.5, whereas Queen of the Hill gets in with 54.5 Kg, and Captain Callow on her back. Weight will make all the difference here, and I can't see her getting beaten.

Suggested bet: Queen of the Hill straight out.

Race 3: Saab Quality.

Unless you have been living under a rock for the last week, I'm sure you have heard about Mr. Celebrity's Geelong Cup run, where he missed the start by five lengths, charged home to be beaten about a neck, and was declared a non runner. I can't honestly see anything beating him home. Confectioner is clearly the second best horse in the race, but may find it tough with 58 Kg. Dizelle could run a big race, so look out for her.

Suggested bet: Exacta. Mr Celebrity - Field ($14 for $1)

Race 4: Wakeful Stakes

Astronomia dominates the market which, in light of her dominant win at Caulfield last start is to be expected. She is the deserved favourite.

Looking for value however, I think we should look in the direction of the other Gai Waterhouse runner, Beauty Watch. She has always given the impression of a horse who would get better over ground, and be suited to Flemington. She ran a cracking race to beat home Mnemosyne in the Flight Stakes, and the race she ran subsequently was that of a filly looking for extra distance.

Suggested bet: Beauty Watch (E/W)

Race 5: Myer Classic

The first of the Group One's. In light of her brilliant run in the Cox Plate, Lotteria dominates the market, at about $3. However, I think there are a couple of things to be wary of. Firstly, she had an extremely tough run last week, and backing up at a shorter distance will not be easy. Secondly, when observing the horses in the mounting yard before the Cox Plate last week, I must say I cannot remember seeing a horse look as magnificent as she did. Gai could not possibly have had her any better. What goes up, must come down. She is a class horse, but is vulnerable here.

Shania Dane is the one I want to be on here. Toorak Hcp run was full of merit after trying to lead all the way, was more than competitive with Sydney's best sprinter-milers (including the aformentioned Lotteria). Beadman should be able to take a nice sit and get to the front at the right time.

Suggested bet: Shania Dane (E/W)

Race 6: VRC Derby

Last Saturday at the Valley, I ran into Graeme Rogerson, walking from his stalls back to mounting yard, and I asked him about Duelled. He said he was extremely confident about the Derby, and "if we can win here it would be nice, but the main target is the Derby". So of course, I went and backed Manton.

Duelled won.

I'm inclined to stick with Graeme here though. The way in which Duelled was able to make two runs, getting up to third from about last at the 800m, and then able to tough it out over the closing stages and hold out Manton was the run of a real stayer.

Pendragon has been supremely impressive this Spring, but frankly, $2.70 is no value, and from barrier 15 he is going to find it very hard.

I find it hard to leave out Gallant Guru, except that over the years the Geelong Classic has proved a very weak form line into the Derby. Could well show up.

Suggested bet: Duelled (E/W)

Race 7: Mackinnon Stakes

Lad of the Manor will win this. How Activation is favourite I don't know. It is absolutely bizarre to me. He has beaten absolutely nothing. My biggest concern is Desert War.

Suggested bet: Lad of the Manor (whatever you are betting, triple it)

Race 8: Salinger Stakes

Absolutely cracking race here, with any number of chances I could easily justify. I am going to go with the forgotten runner, the Hong Kong horse Cape of Good Hope.

Now, he of course gets his head kicked in by Silent Witness every time he races, but he is more than competitive when he can get away from his bogey man.

He won the Golden Jubilee (the best sprint race in Britain, won by Choisir a couple of years ago) in race record time, and of course in Australia last Autumn won the Australia Stakes, and was third to Fastnet Rock and Alinghi in the Lightning. He is not well off at the weights, but I think $14 justifies having a nibble.

Last year's winner Takeover Target and headcase Falkirk are the main dangers.

Suggested bet: Cape of Good Hope (E/W)

Race 9: Yallambee Stud Stakes

I was all fired up to back Recapitalize, and then the barrier draw comes out and he is starting on the other side of the Maribyrnong!

In light of this, I am going to go with the in form Volitant. He has won his last two, impressively, isn't badly off at the weights, will go forward and lead, and will be very, very hard to chase down.

Suggested bet: Volitant (E/W)