The first thing I like to do when assessing cup form, is write off some horses who cannot possibly win or place.

That would be the following:

Franklins Gardens
Kindjhal
Dizelle
Vouvray
On A Jeune
Umbula
Bazelle
Envoy
Rizon
Strasbourg
Kamssky
Greys Inn
Hugs Dancer
Vinnie Roe
Portland Singa

These horses are either not good enough, or in bad form. Take my word for it.

The remaining 9, we need to be divided into the serious winning chances, and the possibilities.

Possibilities:

Distinction - Sixth in last year's Cup, after something of a torrid run. Last start in the Doncaster Cup was appalling, although you have to assume that was an aberration, otherwise connections would not have incurred the cost of sending him out here. Form prior to that was top notch.

Xcellent - Potential megastar who hasn't delivered as yet. Unorthodox campaign, but if the horses from Europe can win the cup first up, no reason he can't win with slightly more miles in the legs. Not without a hope, and don't leave him out of your multiples.

Demerger - Will run a strong 3200m, as won Adelaide Cup by seven lengths in Autumn. Been a touch disappointing lately, 10th last start in Caulfield Cup, but has been set for this all along.

Lachlan River - Fast finishing third in Mackinnon was too impressive to ignore. Form before that moderate. Should run a strong 3200m.

Serious chances:

Makybe Diva - What can you say, that hasn't already been said? Outstanding mare, not altogether badly weighted, custom made track courtesy of the VRC. Leave her out at your peril.

Eye Popper - Run of the race in the Caulfield Cup, went 3 or 4 wide most of the way and was done a neck. Beat Makybe home easily in Japan (don't believe the rubbish about the track being too hard). If I knew he was going to get a proper ride he would be almost a certainty.

Railings - Won the Caulfield Cup, and the jockey said he was only going to get better. Handicapper has got to him a bit, and if Eye Popper was ridden properly I couldn't see him beating that horse home, nevertheless, he may well not be ridden properly! Strong chance and will be in it for a long time. Jockey MUST go forward, and I'm pretty certain will.

Leica Falcon - Most has been said already, bush horse with a huge sprint. He ran the final 400m faster than any other runner on Caulfield Cup DAY. Huge show with 59 Kg.

Mr Celebrity - Looks a truly outstanding racehorse in the making. Forget the result of the Saab on Saturday, the run was huge, making up heaps of ground off a farcical pace. With only 49.5Kg on his back, will be running on hard.

My suggested bet is to box up my chances, (numbers 1,3,6,7,8,11,13,22,23, $18 for 50c), in a quinella and have something each way on Eye Popper.

Other tips for tomorrow:

Race 1, no.3: Follow The Till

Won a maiden at Ballarat by seven lengths so obviously has some ability. Against mostly unraced lot here.

Race 2, no.13: Sun Song

Fourth in smart mares race in Gosford last start. Astute stable. Well weighted.

Race 3, no.4: Douro Valley

Dour staying type with just that hint of class. Beautifully drawn, hard to see anything beating him here. Should win an Adelaide/Brisbane/Sydney Cup one day.

Race 4, no.13: Pin Up

Magnificently bred, (half sister to Starcraft, Forum Floozie), but less impressive at first up run. Had excuses, and the 1400m plus the weight scale is well in her advantage. Each way.

Race 5, no.7: Langness

'Won' the Blue Diamond preview that was later deemed a non race. Was utterly brilliant in that performance. Been generally disappointing since, but David Hayes may well be the man to sort it out. Worth having a nibble at odds.

Race 6, no.4: Funlove

Won most impressively last start at Caulfield and no harder here. Excellent each way chance.

Race 8, no.3: Oamaru Storm

Super consistent horse who loves the track. Great winning strike rate and excellent each way value.

Race 9, no.10: Unabated

Consistent mare who is well weighted and has good record at the track. Each way. Very open race.

Race 10. no.4: El Zahia

Handy gelding who has won first up before. Should sprint well fresh. Nice barrier and S. Arnold on. Another very, very open race.

Best of luck punters.