September 22, 2008
Get involved for the spring carnival
Our gallop boys are on fire and ready for a big Carnival so good time to join our friendly forums for a no abuse site with lots of winners.
Posted by Barney at 12:26 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
March 14, 2006
Sangster Stakes
Here is the preview of the G1 Robert Sangster Stakes.
1. Crimson Reign - Class Sydney mare who has drawn beautifully and has D. Beadman on. The deserved favourite.
2. Beautiful Gem - 1400 to 1200 is the concern. Ellicorsam will be putting on a lot of pace and this may drag her into it.
3. Ballet Society - On her day could win, but simply could not have her on recent form.
4. Ellicorsam - Won Hareeba Stakes at Mornington due to massive track bias in her favour. Will ensure a genuine pace but can't see her being in the finish.
5. Strikeline - If the track was utterly sodden, a heavy 10, she would be a good chance. Failing that, no.
6. Leone Chiara - Someone needs to get it into Danny O'Brien's head that this mare simply does not run out 1200m. Six attempts for the emergency number 0-0-0. Can't win.
7. Social Glow - She is a Stakes race winner. Why she isn't at stud is beyond me. Placed in this race two years ago but won't be again.
8. Truly Wicked - In the Social Glow category. Black type winning mare who should be at stud.
9. Solar Antiquity - Appalling first up and although she has a good second up record, couldn't have her. Placed in this race and Goodwood last year.
10. Unabated - Never given any reason to indicate she is up to G1 level. However change from Bill Mitchell to David Hayes stable may help. $8 is unders.
11. Make A Stand - In this race so her owners can go round telling everyone they own a horse in a G1 race.
12. Sovereign Miss - In this race so her owners can go round telling everyone they own a horse in a G1 race.
13. Exalted Madam - In this race so her owners can go round telling everyone they own a horse in a G1 race.
14. Zolaroyale - Group 1 placed in South Africa, and Perfect Promise has shown those horses can be more than competitive here. Be very wary.
15. Carry On Cutie - Hasn't fired a shot in 12 months. Get her to stud ASAP.
16. Crevette - Far from the roughest. Ran poorly first up but at $31, worth a nibble.
17. Chetwynd South - Nice filly but I question the form lines out of her races. Either way, $5 is unders.
18. Divine Madonna - I quite like this filly, especially her run in winning a Listed race at Sandown in Spring. Can sit midfield from barrier 5, and with D. Dunn on, at $17, worth backing.
SELECTIONS:
1. Crimson Reign
2. Divine Madonna
3. Chetwynd South
4. Zolaroyals
5. Crevette
The one I'll be backing is Divine Madonna at $17.
Posted by Tim at 11:35 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
March 12, 2006
Monday 13/3
Moonee Valley
R1, no.4: Storm Signal
R2, no.2: Joie More
R3, no.3: Kloknbull
R4, no.7: Miss Lyrebird
R5, no.2: Rulan Ruby
R6, no.7: Lord of Lauriston
R7, no.10: Octrivia
R8, no.2: Surfie Pete
Morphettville
R3, no.5: Glory Be
R5, no.2: Chickaloo
R6, no.2: Shablec
R7, no.1: Black Tom
R8, no.12: Magically
Canterbury
R3, no.8: Robrick
R4, no.1: Retract
R6, no.5: Corowa
R7, no.9: Rosecutter
Posted by Tim at 07:21 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
February 21, 2006
Wangaratta
Just a couple today:
R6, no.2: Today
R8, no.2: First Tycoon.
Cheers.
Posted by Tim at 11:22 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
February 10, 2006
Orr Stakes Day
Race 1 - Isanami
Competitive in top line 3YO fillies events last Spring without ever threatening. Fresh record isn't great, but once you look into it, has had excuses. Should be at reasonable odds.
Race 2 - Toulouse Lautrec
Going with the Callow running double to open the day, but this horse was a monty to suffer second up syndrome last start, and he did. Classier than all these, and whilst 59 Kg impost is significant, I think he can give this a good shake.
Race 3 & 4
These races are a lottery and I can't tip anything with confidence. If I have to pick one I'll go with Satin Robes in the fillies and Dubai's Choice in the colts.
Race 5 - Strikeline
Bet of the day for mine. Classy mare with outstanding fresh record, goes great at Caulfield. Will get back and should run over fast pace up front. If it's wet, so much the better.
Race 6 - Regal Roller
Caulfield track specialist whose story is pretty well known. If he runs up to his best, there isn't much speed on, they won't catch hin. As good as Lad of the Manor is, with the lack of speed and his wide barrier, he will be too hard to catch.
Race 7 - Orange County
Tough race with a number of winning chances. Orange County is a smart horse who I think can show up at pretty good odds.
Race 8 - Hollow Bullet
Not quite up to top line company but has proven can sprint well fresh. Big field and should be a lot of pace on, can see her running over the top of them.
Posted by Tim at 11:20 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
February 01, 2006
Thursday 2/1
Good results yesterday. Swish Trish won paying $2.80, and Nothin' Like Mary won paying about $6.
Couple for tomorrow:
Geelong
R2, no.5: Mars Cleary
R4, no.2: Boulton
R5, no.1: Lightofprosperity
R6, no.5: Namibia
R8, no.4: Laogan
Canterbury:
R5, no.3: Collate
Posted by Tim at 11:57 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
January 31, 2006
Sandown Wednesday
R1, no.4: Swish Trish.
Still a maiden but formlines behind some nice horses, such as Expensively, Pinezero, and Jestawinna.
R3, no.4: We're Unaware
Becoming costly but has been running consistently and doesn't meet much here. Nikolic on.
R4, no.6: Holly Go Lightly
Hayes runner who is more of a staying type but can go well fresh here. Form behind nice filly Astronomia and Geelong Classic winner Gallant Guru.
R7, no.4: Nothin' Like Mary
Improving mare from Vasil stable who won nicely last start at Flemington. In with only 51.5 Kg after the claim for Maloney.
Posted by Tim at 06:35 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
January 26, 2006
Australia Day races...
Wednesday night was quite good, tipped five from eleven (couple of scratchings). Canterbury was the most biased track you will probably ever see in your life.
Anyway, it's awfully late, so I'll just quickly put in my selections for tomorrow.
Sandown
R1, no.4: Lula
R2: 2YO race. All I can advise is to watch betting moves.
R3: As above.
R4, no.1: Domesday
R5, no.2: Doubting
R7, no.10: Rare Poppi (but go Karasi!)
R8: No tip.
Randwick:
R2: Old Mystique
Nothing else.
Good luck.
Posted by Tim at 02:30 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
January 07, 2006
Saturday 7/1
Anna's Choice was super, and I hope you took that $4.80! Got in to $2.90 on the tote by the time they jumped.
Petit Verdot was insipid, while Rare Poppi missed the start and ran well to come 5th, beaten just over a length.
Miss Finland lived up to her pedigree.
As for today, another couple:
Sandown R3, no.3: Bella Jinsky
Good first up record, likes the track, Noel on. Meets a field of cats here - to put that in context, Lucky Diva got 56Kg for a race at Ballarat yesterday, she got 59 Kg here.
R5, no.2: Spark of Life
Will be winning.
R7, no.5: Kepola
Front runner who has gone well at last two starts in midweek company. Loves the track and comes in very well after the claim.
Rosehill
R8, no.1: Snowden
Very promising galloper in the making. Trialled nicely, and although badly off at the weights and drawn wide, has the class to overcome that.
Posted by Tim at 11:42 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
January 06, 2006
Friday Tips
Leno disappointing. One paced to line - maybe didn't appreciate the dead going.
Anyway, have a couple for tomorrow at Ballarat.
Race one is for two year old fillies, and I though I would indulge myself by writing a bit about the pedigree of each runner.
1. Gypsy Coupez
By Ne Coupez Pas, a son of the great Nureyev. Disappointment on the track - this is his first Australian crop. Dam has produced two winners from four progeny to race. Is a full sister to 1989 Manifold Stakes winner French Gypsy.
Tim's breeding assessment: 45/100
2. Katmai
This is one to get a bit more excited about! From the family of Klairessa, dam of the great Eight Carat (dam of Octagonal, Mouawad, Kaapstad etc). Grand dam was a black type winner and the dam of two Group One winners, Telesto and Bonanova. The dam is by the outstanding Danehill, and won three races, including two at two. Has produced two runners for two winners (although neither especially good).
Sire Strategic is solid, if not spectacular, achieving a reasonable winners to runners ratio of 59.8%, and has sired a couple of handy 2YO's.
Rating: 80/100
3. Miss Finland
By hot hot hot sire Redoute's Choice. Enough said.
Dam Forest Pearl was unraced, but grand dam Moonshell won Epsom Oaks in England. Her dam produced two other outstanding European performers, Hatha Anna and Doyen.
Rating: 90/100
4. Rossi Bessi
By good sire Red Ransom from Show Her The Money, who has produced handy city performer Medieval Legend.
Rating: 65/100
5. The Girlfriend
By handy sire Spinning World. No black type performers in the first four generations. Dam has produced two winners.
Rating: 50/100
6. The Princess Mary
Sire Forest Glow is not the worst, dam (by Dieu D'or) won a maiden. Happy to leave out.
Rating: 30/100
One who has been lingering in the Black Book for a while is Race 3, no.2 Anna's Choice. Beautifully bred (Redoute's Choice - Miss Kournikova) and won his second start at a Werribee 'metro' meet in the middle of last year. Showed a lot of natural ability, but needed a little bit of time and maturity. Resumes today against an okay lot, and should be very competitive. $4.80 on TAB Fixed Odds is good value.
I am upset by the placement of Lucky Diva in race four. The last thing I would have thought to myself as she was getting run down in the shadows of the post was 'gee, another 100m next time will do the trick'. Could still win as has big class edge, but couldn't have with much confidence.
One in race five who could run a race is number 10, Petit Verdot. Half sister to Amalfi by Carnegie, bred along staying lines so would appreciate more distance so you would think. I observed her in the flesh on debut at Bendigo, and she is a very small filly, and I think the postage stamp might suit her well. Up in class a bit but worth having something on.
One I like at would should be ok odds in the sixth is Rare Poppi. Showed a bit of staying potential last winter, and with a bit more distance should be competitive. Ran on very well last start at Sandown - last 600m in 33.62. Has perfect, one from one, second up record.
Good punting.
Posted by Tim at 01:09 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
January 02, 2006
January 2/1
Black Tom made for a nice start to the year. Hopefully a couple of winners at Flemington tomorrow.
R4, no.1: El Man Goss
Nice sprinter with perfect first up record will appreciate sting out of ground. Comes in well after claim. Great record at distance.
R5, no.3: Tuareg
Meets field of cats - handy enough on his day. Better for recent racing.
R6, no.14: Vendome
Last start was a top run at Flemington - well back off a slow pace, and pocketed until about the 200m, and then ran on hard to come fifth. Not going to be easy, but at big odds (30-1) worth having a little nibble at.
R7, no. 3: Honalee
Outstanding value at $5.50. Has won at group level before, and very competitive in stronger races over the Spring Carnival. Loves distance, placed from one go at track, and topped off by the successful Mark Kavanagh/Dwayne Dunn combination.
Sydney
R6 no.2: Damigos
Very handy sprinter on his day, with excellent first up record. Goes well at Ranwick and from very smart Gerald Ryan camp. $9 isn't bad value.
Posted by Tim at 12:51 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
December 30, 2005
Saturday 31/12
Hopefully we can see in the New Year on a winning note, with a bit of bonus beer money!
Moonee Valley
R3, no.1: California Dane
Will be winning. Hopefully get a quote somewhere near even money.
R4, no.3: Transferral
On face value couldn't have him after shocking first up run. But this horse has a history of putting in a bad one first up, then running well second up. Staying type who has won at distance however. Should be at nice odds. Meets mediocre bunch here.
R6, no.3: Leonurus
Has been there and thereabouts this prep witout breaking through. Last start at Flemington was good, and with added fitness, should be too good for moderately performed lot.
Perth Cup
Black Tom
Last run was huge with great final 600m. Early Express who led, only won due to farcical pace - 50-1 shot on his outside ran second. Two miles will find him out.
Magic Millions 3YO
TAB Sportsbet is currently offering $2.40 on Fashions Afield for this race. This is a significantly better price than other bookies. Fashions Afield is one of Australia's best 3YO sprinting fillies, along with Virage De Fortune and Mnemosyne. Last start she won the G1 , $350,000 Flight Stakes, defeating Mnemosyne (amongst others). The second favourite, Diamondsondinside, won a $12,000 Open Handicap at Caloundra, defeating Wolfman. Although the losers of those races are both trained by John Hawkes, I don't think it is necessary to ask him which is better.
Please, for your own benefit, go and have something on before she wins race 6 at Doomben tomorrow. She will start $1.20 or so and therefore not really worth backing - but watch her MM price tumble after she wins.
Back on New Year's Day with the tips for Standish day on Monday.
Posted by Tim at 09:28 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
August 18, 2005
Geelong Thursday
Race 2, no. 12: Colonel Mustard
Highly regarded as an early season 2YO, then failed at Group 2 level in Adelaide. Trained by Lee Freedman, and doesn't meet much of quality here. Hopefully has come back in good order, and should be competitive here.
Race 3, no.16: Tears of Argentina
Umatilla filly trained by Mick Price, and to be ridden by our favourite Jockey Noel Callow. Umatilla's get better with more distance, so expect her to be compeitive here. Was competitive in a 1200m maiden here last start beating the fourth place getter by five lengths.
Race 5, no.3: Safari Sunbeam
This filly, by Genuine, won her debut start at a Sandown midweek meeting a couple of weeks ago. Third placegetter from that race has subsequently won at Wangaratta convincingly. This field has some smart types, but I think she will be too strong again. Another Mick Price / Noel Callow combination. Considering they have a 50% strike rate when teaming together (in the 12 months to August 5) why wouldn't you back them?
Best of luck punters,
Tim.
Posted by Tim at 12:31 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
August 17, 2005
Wednesday results
Anna's Choice made good ground to finish fourth, and will certainly pay to follow.
Gunfire Messiah was a late scratching.
In today's main news, Written Bloodstock Syndicate have withdrawn their horses from Sydney trainer Graeme Begg. Horses trained by Begg for Written Bloodstock include multiple Group One placegetter Our Egyptian Raine, and exciting Colt Written Tycoon.
Begg has not been given a reason for the withdrawal, and according to Begg Victorian trainer Robert Smerdon has had the horses he trains for the syndicate withdrawn as well.
More news on this interesting development in coming days.
Posted by Tim at 11:23 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
August 12, 2005
Saturday 13/8
Tips for tomorrow's big day of racing...
Sydney:
Premiere Stakes - Dance Hero
Too brilliant for them last time, and save for a bog track, which would bring Spark of Life into it, I expect the same result here.
Melbourne:
Lifestyle Stakes - Perfectly Ready
Trialled superbly on Monday, and will be suited by the wet track, where as Undoubtedly will not. Don't rate Siednazar personally. Danerich for the quinella.
Crockett Stakes - Freestle
Has won four from five career starts, and as the name suggests, should be a swimmer as she is by Snippets from a Star Way mare. Not too harshly treated at the weights either. Langness could pinch it if her brain is in order and it isn't too wet, and you can throw in Jadescent for the quinella as well.
McEwen Trophy - Strikeline
Can't have Bomber Bill with a wet track, and the Mayfield-Smith mare Strikeline is a very classy mare, and has a great record at the track, the distance, and in the wet. What more could you want? Our Quivara is second favourite for crying out loud.
In other news today Grand Armee trialled terribly and his Spring campaign is in doubt.
Best of luck punters.
Tim.
Posted by Tim at 09:15 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
August 11, 2005
Wednesday recap
Lancaster's Gold was unplaced (started 20-1 mind you) and the other one was scratched.
Noel watch:
Race 2: Red For Lou, WON. Payed $3.40 and $1.50.
So, 1 ride for 1 win - a 100% strike rate!
Find me the financial analyst who can get you a 245% return on your money in one day!
We have followed the Captain since Saturday:
6 rides
2 winners
1 second
1 third
Return on $1 each way - $3.80 profit!
Back tomorrow for Saturday's fields - it will be hard to back old Bomber if the rain keeps falling.
Posted by Tim at 12:55 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
August 09, 2005
Wednesday 10/8
Race 5 no.1: Fort Blevedere
Very impressive winner two starts ago in midweek class, then came an unlucky fifth in Saturday class at Moonee Valley. With the 2 Kg claim from Moor gets in with 56Kg.
Race 7 no.2: Lancaster's Gold
This is quite a smart horse on his day. Hasn't a brilliant first up record, but will go back from outside barrier and will hopefully be charging home.
Best of luck punters.
Tim.
Posted by Tim at 10:16 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
August 05, 2005
Bletchingly & San Domenico Stakes
Spring is just around the corner, and many of Australia's best juveniles will be making their comeback in the San Domenico Stakes at Rosehill. Down in Melbourne, the Beltchingly Stakes sees a number of evergreen sprinters battling it out, as well as the return of a couple of other genuine Group 1 gallopers.
San Domenico Stakes
This is always a very tough race to call. Many of these will have improved from their 2YO season in leaps and bounds, whereas others will never manage to fulfil the potential they once displayed.
Snitzel is the $2.80 favourite for this race, a price which just seems way too short for my liking. Although on some occasions he has shown exceptional ability, when the pressure has been on in the really big races (Magic Millions and Slipper) he has failed. That said he has evidently trialled well. Corey Brown rides the colt.
Menmosyne is the horse who has really taken my fancy for this one. She has only managed to win the one start, but has shown exceptional ability on a number of occasions, most notably the Slipper where she missed the start yet still charged home to finish third. She then came second in the Sires Produce to the exceptional Fashions Afield. There is something about this filly that reminds a little bit of Alinghi - maybe because they are both by Encosta De Lago? Either way, with only 52 Kg on her back, she looks every chance to me, and at $4.40 is well worth looking at each way.
Golden Slipper winner Stratum and the smart filly Media also cannot be discounted.
In summary, I would back Mnemosyne each way.
Bletchingly Stakes
Why there is a race at Caulfield named after this horse I don't really know. After all, his only Group victory came in the AJC Galaxy, and I'm not sure he even won anything at Caulfield. Having said that he was an exceptional sire, being the sire of, amongst others, the champion Kingston Town.
First let's look at Regal Roller. This horse is a renowned Caulfield specialist, winning the Liston, the Dubai Racing Club, and the Toorak Handicap there last Spring, as well as the Futurity in the Autumn. Understandably, people want to be on the bandwagon this Spring. In any case, this isn't the race for him. Why?
Two reasons. Firstly, he has a poor first up record. He has won one race from six first up - a $30,000 Open Handicap at Bendigo, with 49 Kg on his back. That is not a misprint. 49 kg.
Secondly, he has a poor record at the distance of 1200m. Indeed, from five starts he has yet to win over the distance. Further, the only win below 1200m was the aforementioned Open Handicap at Bendigo!
As good as he is, looking at those facts you couldn't possibly touch him tomorrow.
Let me write a few more off: Truly Wicked simply does not have the class. How Ghost Party got into the race I have no idea. Roman Arch is a smart galloper - but not here. The track will be too wet for Bomber Bill - likely scratching. Dilly Dally is already out. Hollow Bullet is untested outside three year old filles class - and there is a hell of a difference between the race she won first up year on Australia Day and what she faces here. Nevertheless she is a class galloper and must be rated some chance.
Wildly is not a great horse. However, you have to take account of his heavy track record - three starts for two wins and a second. He also loves Caulfield. Therefore, he has to be in our multiples.
Le Zagaletta seems to come out for this race every year. If any trainer can set a 10 year old horse for one race, year in, year out, it is Lee Freedman. Captain Callow takes the mount, so there is definitely some hope - again, one for out multiples.
This brings us to a grand old campaigner of the turf. Super Elegant has been a top horse, year in, year out, and seems to have almost gotten better with age. His heavy track record is superb, he loves Caulfield, and he comfortably beat many of the same horses here last start. His second up record is outstanding as well. From barrier four, I can't see anything beating him.
So in summary, I would have something on Super Elegant to win, and take the trifecta, Super Elegant to win from Wildly, La Zagaletta, and Hollow Bullet.
Best of luck punters.
Posted by Tim at 03:26 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
June 11, 2005
Saturday 11/6
I have been sorting my tips out all night, so sadly I don't have the time or energy to give my usual essay. Nevertheless, here are my selections.
Stradbroke: Takeover Target (after much thought and deliberation - more than I have put into any race since the Spring)
QTC Derby: Roving Owl - Due to get some luck here, and was doing his best work late last time. Not keen on Vitesse Dane, although Prize Lady may run a race.
Flemington
Quaddie: 1,2,3,13/2,6,9,12/1,2,3/4 $24 for 50c
Race 5: Rolling Rock
Race 6: Lord of Lauriston
Race 7: Monahan Tweed
Race 8: O'Carnavass
Race 9: Medium Swing
Best of luck as always punters.
Posted by Tim at 02:05 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
June 09, 2005
Wednesday results
Wildly was scratched, will probably accept for Flemington on Saturday.
Danerich won the second, ended up $2.00 so I was prepared to back him at that.
Noise Barrage was hopeless in the second, Swish Trish ran a nice race for second.
Glasnost was very stiff, leading all the way but got taken on all the way in front, never had a rest, and weakened, as the racecaller said, she had to. Can't be disappointed with her effort.
Little Miss Ruby was unplaced, didn't see the race.
So overall, a bit frustrating. That's punting.
Posted by Tim at 12:15 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
June 07, 2005
Wednesday 8/6
Firstly a little post-mortem of Saturday...
Virage De Fortune got up, as I tipped, and was quite stunning in doing so. Certainly one to watch for the Spring. Eventually got out to about $3.80 after a big move on Testafiable, so the $3.25 wasn't quite as good as I'd hoped!
I wrote off Tick By in the Oaks, and true, she didn't win, but I msde a mistake I don't make often, and that was underestimating Lee Freedman. If she had a run over 2000m she may well have won.
Irish Darling and Hveger were both disappointing but they probably reached their peak earlier. Didn't get the quinella, but Prize Lady ran a nice race at good odds.
Also found two (admittedly short) winners at Sandown. Not a great result but not terrible.
Moonee Valley
Which is the real Wildly? At times this horse has shown outstanding ability, at others, nothing short of disgraceful. He has had a change of trainer since the Autumn (going to John McArdle from Rick Hore-Lacy) and should be ready to perform, as he has an excellent first up record. Group 1 winner of last Saturday Greg Childs has the mount, and I think this can only help. He has had one start at the Valley, and was beaten half a length into fourth.
Cos Snip is a very interesting runner, a typically speedy Snippets filly, having recorded four wins from nine starts, all those wins coming over the kilometre. She was well beaten last start but is substantially down in class, and has a tendency to mix her form.
On class these are the only two you would touch, but it isn't always about class, is it? I personally will back Wildly but I will be very cautious about tipping a horse to others whose form varies, pardon the pun, so Wildly.
Danerich should win the second, but by golly he will be short. Has run into smart horses such as Personal Ensign and Nehemiah in two starts in Saturday class. Back in class here, but I wouldn't want to back him, especially when you never know about some of these unraced horses. I don't think anyone who has lived by the mantra 'odds on look on' has ever lived to regret it.
Adding to the interest in this meeting is the third race for 2YO fillies. On last start form Noise Barrage should win this, strolling in at Sale by three and a half lengths. Another from the dominant Freedman stable. Another interesting runner is Swish Trish, a Redoute's Choice filly having her second start for Ross McDonald, after coming fourth in a fairly strong race back in January.
A few dour staying types will head round in the fourth, and good luck to them, but I think the best chance of finding a winner involves a a form guide and a dart.
Glasnost is clearly the classiest runner in the 4th, being a multiple city winner. She loves the Valley, loves the 1600, and after the claim for Jamie Mott will carry 57, significant but not insurmountable. She happens to be a half sister of our good friend Virage De Fortune.
House Mouse, Fly Me Home, and Any Dane Now for the field quinella.
Aftet this race, Little Miss Ruby is the only one which I like for the rest of the day.
Best of luck punters - back Friday for the Stradbroke preview.
Posted by Tim at 11:38 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
June 04, 2005
Saturday Racing 4/6
The first item of business is to commend Barney's trot tips. He got 3 out of 4 today, paying from memory $4.70, $4.80, and $2.20. Another outstanding effort.
This Saturday's racing is focused on Brisbane, which moves to the Eagle Farm leg of its Winter Carnival, in particular the Group 1 QTC Sires Produce, and the Group 1 QTC Oaks.
QTC Sires Produce
Virage de Fortune is the $2.80 favourite for this race, and it isn't hard to see why. She was quite brilliant beating most of these last start over 1200m at G2 level in the Champagne Classic, leading all the way and never looking in any doubt, winning by 2 1/2 lengths.
From barrier four it is hard to see the result going any other way, although the 1400m will probably be right on her limit (she is by Anabaa, who's progeny are genuine sprinters) she was going all right at the end of the 1200m last week to suggest it won't be a problem. Greg Childs is riding, funnily enough, he gets more rides at a top level meeting like this than he does at Sandown on a Wednesday.
It is pretty hard to look outside the main favourites in this race, as the form lines only really come out of two races, the Champagne and the Ken Russell at the Gold Coast, and I would agree with the bookies assessment that Foolish and Diamondondinside are the next best chances. I wouldn't take less than $2.80 on Virage De Fortune - I managed to get $3.25 while the going was good. The main threat to her is if she gets taken on by something like Darci Barhma in front - even if she does, I think Childs will be able to take a sit. I remember him riding another front running filly a while back, called Sunline from memory.
QTC Oaks
First things first, I would just like to write off the chances of the Lee Freedman trained Tick By. She is too far up in distance, too inexperienced, and too far up in class to possibly have a chance here. The $8 quote is quite ridiculous. I don't blame connections for having a go - there aren't that many chances you get to win a G1, even if they are pretty slim.
Speaking of writing off, there are a bunch of NZ horses having their first Australian start tomorrow, Felenic, Argyle Lass, Mercury Island, and Zaria. No chance. Likewise Glen Shian. That is six down, leaving nine chances, of varying degree.
One major form line for this race is the SA Oaks, from which the Tony Vasil trained pair of Irish Darling and Hveger come. The bonus with these two is that you can be sure they will get the trip. Irish Darling won the Australasian Oaks at 25-1, and then the SA Oaks. Drawn wide (which shouldn't matter much as she goes back) and loses the services of Paul Harvey, who has opted to ride in Perth, where the prizemoney for the card just about matches that of this race. It is always an interesting sign when a jockey does something like that - it is possible he doesn't rate her chances. Every chance on SA form, assuming she holds it.
Hveger is the sister of top liner Elvestrom. While she has yet to go near the heights of her brother, she has been improving with every start. If I was Tony Vasil, I would be instructing Blake Shinn to try and lead on her, as there doesn't seem to be much obvious pace in this one (although I cannot speak for the NZ horses), as he says, she is a 'grinding staying type' and as such it should suit her. Depending how much she has improved, and it's hard to know, could be right up there.
Favourite at this point is the Tony Wildman trained Cinque Cento, who has come from a Gosford Class 1 to an Eagle Farm Group 1 in two starts. No reason why she cannot hold others such as Ponte Piccolo, Vitesse Dane, Fiery Sunset, Aqua D'amore, Glen Shian who she beat in the Doomben Roses. CC also gains the services of Australia's best rider, Darren Beadman, which never hurts.
Of the NZ horses, the one which strikes me as having appeal is Prize Lady, based on her second in the NZ Oaks to She's Justa Tad, who subsequently came second (and looked like winning until the last 50m) She's Justa Tad. That tells us two things - 1. She will stay the distance. 2. To get within a length of She's Justa Tad, she must have some class. Presently 13-1, so well worth having a look at.
The abovementioned first five finishers in the Doomben Roses have to be some chance as well, especially with the distance query hanging over so many of these.
As usual with these races it is very tough, but if I had to back one it would Hveger each way ($12 currently), and I think boxing Irish Darling, Heveger, Cinque Cento, Ponte Piccolo and Prize Lady in a quinella gives you the chance of a decent result.
Other tips:
Sandown
1 - 2. Nehemiah.
3 - 9. Valkyrie Diva (don't take less than $2.70)
4 - 1. Stuyvesant.
5 - 3. Irish Belle.
6 - 1. Valedictum, 3. Sain Khapital.
7 - 1. Pantani.
8 - 2,3,5,7 box quinella.
All the best punters as always.
Posted by Tim at 12:03 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
May 27, 2005
Saturday 28/5
A poor Doomben Cup field nevertheless represents a decent betting opportunity.
This is one of the poorer Doomben Cup fields in recent years, considering the calibre of some of the horses who have won this race. Nevertheless, there is still an opportunity for a win.
Perlin had excuses when going down in the PM's Cup on the Gold Coast, as I explained the weekend before last. Having some more time to get acclimatised, and after having an opportunity to get used to the clockwise way of going, I think he should improve considerably, and the $3.50 on Sportsbet looks about right.
Platinum Scissors has come back well since failing to 'fire' at stud, and beat Roman Arch very well last start. I would add Tickle to the multiples only if wet, and Pacific Dancer and Natural Blitz so long as there is NO rain around.
VRC Winter Championship Heat
I am a big believer that jockey's make a big difference, and after 5 seconds in a row, Mr. Murphy should be able to go one better thanks to the presence of outstanding rider Noel Callow. The form of the horse can't be faulted, it is just that he keeps getting pipped at the post. In these five seconds he has had apprentice riders on in all of them, and the presence of a top experienced rider should lift him enough to get him over the line.
McCarthy's Bar and Butten Shaw for the multiples.
Posted by Tim at 04:37 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
May 14, 2005
Saturday 14/5
Big day of racing on the Gold Coast and over in Adelaide, with a number of very open and interesting races before us.
Goodwood Handicap:
As usual, this is an extremely open and interesting race.
Super Elegant is a grand old fighter, but the combination of the 59.5 Kg and the widest barrier is, I think, going to be too much for him to overcome here.
Speaking of grand old fighters, on his last run, you have to rate Bomber Bill a pretty good chance here, having held out a good portion of the field that contests here today, and also going down in weight since his win. Top heavyweight S. Arnold takes the mount, and he should be right in it, although again the barrier is a concern.
Titanic Jack and Great Is Great are handy enough on their day, but haven't been sufficiently convincing in recent times to warrant their inclusion in the top chances.
As is usual in Adelaide, we find a few horses nowhere near G1 standard: Youth, Zip Zip Aray, Via De Lago, Marwin Gold, Songs of Vienna, Segments - although I suppose that is what handicap racing is about.
Foreplay is favourite, which is quite ridiculous, for a horse who has done absolutely nothing expect come third in a Newmarket in front of runners who would be more at home in a Class 6 at Sandown on a Wednesday than Australia's premier sprint. He was beaten the best part of two lengths by Our Quivira last start for crying out loud! I will say this - if Foreplay wins, I will quit writing for this site. He reminds me a lot of another Danehill 3YO, Danehill Express - all sizzle, no steak.
My selection is Ellicorsam, as questionable as we all know Perth form is, but she has quite a few runs on the board. Last year as a 3YO she came seventh, not a bad effort. Since then she has won four from five in a very convincing manner, two of them at group level. She is a front runner, and whilst a 20 horse race is unlikely to ever be run at a sluggish race, there is nothing which I would expect to go too crazy out in front. Super hot rider Dwayne Dunn gets the ride, and with only 52.5 Kg she is sure to give a good show.
General Bayton is a very consistent galloper and is well worth including in the multiples.
1 - Ellicorsam
2 - Bomber Bill
3 - General Bayton
Longshot: Solar Antiquity
SA Derby
In the previous race I made mention of overhyped and overrated Danehill three year olds - here is another to add to the list, the favourite for this race, Lions Gate. At least this horse has put in one impressive performance, in (I think it is called) the Geelong Classic. That was a long time ago however, and there has not been much of note from him since. There is some talent however, and he may show up.
Heavenly Pun has established himself as superior to most of the 3YO's who have come over from Melbourne since Saturday, but was beaten by Threedee on Saturday. As such, I'm going with pure logical formlines, and selecting Threedee to win from Heavenly Pun.
1 - Threedee
2 - Heavenly Pun
3 - Lions Gate
Prime Ministers Cup
I can't articulate this any better than what this man here has done:
http://www.justracing.com.au/index.php?news_page=1&artid=1491&catid=52
I think Perlin will win, but backing him at $1.90 is just silly. So, I'd have Tickle each way at about $7, coming off the back of a nice win at G3 level just start, and with a good record in the wet. Toulouse Lautrec will be better due to the wet track.
1 - Perlin
2 - Tickle
3 - Toulouse Lautrec
Longshot - Waltermitty (won four and placed seven times from nine on wet tracks)
Hollindale Stakes:
Cannot possibly see anything beating Roman Arch on a slow track. Special of the day, as long as he pulls up ok from his last minute flight. Special Harmony if the track dries out a bit.
Best of luck as always punters.
Posted by Tim at 01:56 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 07, 2005
Thursday tips...
Just a couple for Thursday:
Geelong: 3/8 - Indicates
Zabeel colt trained by Tony McEvoy, who wasn't too far away last start at Bendigo, and should relish the step up in distance. Gun rider Noel Callow takes the mount.
$5 e/w.
Geelong 5/2 - Activation
Has been beaten by subsequent black type winning gallopers in three of his four starts, and won last time. He has been beaten by Lucky Diva at his first start, Brannigan at his second (albeit he came third on that day), and Kengrande at his third. Last start he finally broke through for his maiden victory. Those form lines stand up very well, although there are some promising types in this, including the Robert Smerdon trained Message Bank, who has bolted in at his last two starts.
$5 on Activation to win
$5 on Activation/Message Bank quinella.
Geelong 8/6 Consumer
This punter lost money on her at last start, but is prepared to forgive, as she found a bit of trouble. She is another Zabeel who will appreciate the step up in distance.
$5 e/w.
We at insiderail.com recommend you use Sportingbet (I just opened an account yesterday) for the best odds and range.
Good punting.
Posted by Tim at 01:48 AM | Comments (2) | Permalink
April 01, 2005
Saturday 2/4
Final day of Autumn action in Sydney, and we go off with a bang with no less than four Group One's, and they are all intriguing in their own way.
Champagne Stakes:
Impossible to go past (8) Fashions Afield after most impressive win in the AJC Sires Produce last Saturday. (3) Under the Floor, (4) Replicator, (9) Media and (10) Carry On Cutie combined with Fashions Afield will make a nice little box quinella or trifecta.
Recommended bet: $5 on Fashions Afield to Win, Box Quinella 8,3,4,9,10, $5 for 50c.
All Aged Stakes:
Assuming that everything is right with her, this looks an ideal race for Our Egyptian Raine (8) to score her first Group One on this side of the Tasman. Ultra consistent performer, at about her ideal distance, and no matter what kind of track they throw up she will run well. Shamekha (5), Only Words (7) and Special Harmony (6) are the only three I can see presenting a challenge, although I think the form lines out of the T.J Smith are a bit questionable, with the track being the determining factor in that race.
Recommended bet: $5 each way on Our Egyptian Raine.
Queen Elizabeth Stakes:
Despite losing last start to Makybe Diva, there is no doubt that (1) Grand Armee is an absolute star, and should be able to return to winning ways. It won't be the same plodding tempo as last year, thanks to the presence of NZ horse (6) St. Reims, so Grand Armee may well be forced to take a sit behind him. (9) Vouvray has been going extremely well this preparation, only to keep running into Grand Armee and Makybe Diva, (4) Mummify is a threat in the event of a firm surface, and of course Cox Plate winner (11) Savabeel may show something like his best form in which case he would be a major danger.
Recommended bet:
Trifecta:
1/4,9,11/4,9,11. $9 for $1. Plus we might have our other $1 on Delzao at odds, who knows if the new trainer can work some miracles?
Sydney Cup
Pantani (7) has an imposing record at 3200m, with three wins from five starts, including the Adelaide Cup, and the Listed Banjo Patterson (called the Andrew Ramsden this year) twice. There can be no doubt he will be there at the end, which is more than you can say for a good part of the field. Hugs Dancer (1) has been thereabouts without threatening at WFA races which are totally unsuitable. He has won over 4224m in Europe, and his fifth on an unsuitable wet track last year in the Melbourne Cup is a good form line. Mahtoum (5) won over 2400m at G3 level two starts ago, and his 5th in the BMW was good enough, although the $3.75 presently on offer is ridiculous. Philosophe (11) was a mighty impressive winner in the Chairman's Handicap last Saturday and is every chance with just 51.5 Kg on his back, and stablemate Manawa King (7) who was second in this race last year is a chance again. County Tyrone (2) is another dour type who will put in a good show. You can't have 'em all, so the key is to look for value.
I'm going to box up 1,5,6,7,11 in a Quinella, $5 for 50c, and have $5 on Pantani to Win.
Best of luck punters.
Posted by Tim at 04:02 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
March 28, 2005
Doncaster Handicap
I have rated Al Maher on top, his last start win was simply outstanding, and although he loses the Callow factor here, he does get some weight off them and from barrier 6 with a bunch of backmarkers on his inside, he should have an easy run on the rails. The other important thing is that the track does not degrade further, although at the current rating (Slow-6) he should be ok.
Al Maher 91.5
Danni Martine 71.5
Desert War 68
Court's In Session 65
Tui Song 64.5
Toulouse Lautrec 63
Winning Belle 61
Ike's Dream 57
Patezza 54
In the Victoria Handicap at Cualfield I like the consistent Youth.
Best of luck punters as always.
Posted by Tim at 12:13 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
March 26, 2005
Saturday 26/3 Results
Interesting day of racing...
Caulfield:
Race 5, no.2: Our Smoking Joe
Disappointing, unplaced.
Race 7, no.2: Holding (IF WET)
Scratched
Belmont:
Race 6, no.1: Plastered
Got there, fairly short as expected.
Randwick:
Race 3, no. 2: Don Raphael
Didn't handle the heavy track at all.
Race 4, no. 5: Alinghi
I didn't see the race immediately, but when I saw the results I nearly fell out of my chair.
Race 5, no. 9: Mnemosyne
Second to Fashions Afield, nice run, consistent but not able to break through. Champagne definitely possible.
Race 6, no. 1: Eremein
Saluted in fine style.
Best of luck punters as always.
So:
5 tips:
2 winners
1 Second
2 unplaced
Posted by Tim at 11:24 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
March 25, 2005
Saturday 26/3
Big day coming up with three G1's in Sydney, and of course the famous Oakbank jumps races, not to mention a couple of interesting races at Caulfield.
Caulfield:
Race 5, no.2: Our Smoking Joe
Has not had the slightest luck at all this preparation, trapped behind Youth when first up over 1400m, and then a few things didn't go his way last time. The step up to 2000m will suit and he should put up a bold showing, with top heavyweight S. Arnold on.
Race 7, no.2: Holding (IF WET)
If the track is wet, this mudlark will win in a canter, but should put in a bold showing regardless.
Belmont:
Race 6, no.1: Plastered
VRC Derby winner should be much too good for these.
Randwick:
Race 3, no. 2: Don Raphael
Saab Quality winner who should relish the increase in distance and drop in weight. Form encouraging and at last start charged from last at the 400m mark to finish 5th, albeit three lengths off. Group One Glen won't hurt either.
Race 4, no. 5: Alinghi
Outstanding sprinting filly who has improved considerably over the course of this preparation, whereas Fastnet Rock, whilst nevertheless racing extremely well, hasn't progressed like the filly has. Weight pull is slightly less than last start but Alinghi should still salute.
Race 5, no. 9: Mnemosyne
Absolutely flew home after missing the start a couple of lengths in the Golden Slipper. Every indication that the 1400m will suit her down to the ground.
Race 6, no. 1: Eremein
In true Denham style, more steak than sizzle. Just keeps racing well in similar company to what he meets here.
Best of luck punters as always.
Posted by Tim at 03:34 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
Thursday Results
R1: Tarn Princess narrowly beaten for second, Suite was extremely disappointing.
R2: Simply Rossa second to a very impressive winner in Luminary.
R3: Above Deck won very nicely on the turn, Noel Callow doing everything to make sure he got home.
R4: Just Heaven not sighted, but Korcula flashed home for third in a very impressive considering her weight (60 Kg), definitely one to follow.
R5: Governor Macquarie was going at a cracking pace with the second and third place getters, and he wilted to finish fourth.
R6: Consumer did not fire a shot.
R7: Fine Distraction only able to manage third.
Posted by Tim at 03:27 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
March 24, 2005
Moonee Valley Tonight
Just a flying visit today, best of luck punters as always.
R1: Quinella – Tarn Princess and Suite
R2: Simply Rossa
R3: Above Deck
R4: Quinella - Korcula and Just Heaven
R5: Governor Macquarie
R6: Consumer
R7: Fine Distraction
Tim.
Posted by Tim at 03:45 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
March 22, 2005
Wednesday Tips
Ballarat:
Race 5, no.10: Raphael
Drops 5 Kg from eight length last start defeat when favourite at Moonee Valley. Before that bolted in over same track and distance as he races today, albeit in easier class. Well placed here.
Race 6, no.6: Pawie
Hasn't been as bad as record (1 win from 7 starts) would indicate. Beaten 4.5 lengths in city last start, a form line which does not read badly for this. From powerful Freedman stable, to be ridden by top young jockey B. Shinn.
Race 7, no.8: Clare Vista
Zabeel filly who was an impressive maiden winner last start, can go on with it here. From top notch Mayfield-Smith stable. Forest Spy for the quinella.
Canterbury:
Race 1, no.1: Danrese
Last start winner at Rosehill, and takes on a bunch of plodders here. Beadman rides - will start short.
Race 2, no.1: Raid and Rule
Durable gelding who has won 3 from 6 first up, and there is no reason he cannot salute this time.
Race 7, no.11: Sky Fury
Tim Martin trained gelding by Danehill who has been thereabouts without being able to break through. Gets in nicely on the weights and this could be his race.
Best of luck punters.
Tim
tim@insiderail.com
Posted by Tim at 09:54 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink