This race is going to be an absolute belter, and the possibility of a wet track (dead at best) will just add another complication to it. Several top line G1 winners such as Shamekha, Takeover Target, Patezza, Regimantal Gal, Yell, and Our Egyptian Raine headline this years event. Where to start?

Well, firstly we need to cross some out. John Hawkes said during the week that 10 of the horses in this race have no chance, and I think that his point has some validity. However, there are 150 years of Australian racing history which think differently. Certainly Osca Warrior, Consular (and I'm a fan of both of them), Proudly Agro, Show Biz Kid, Top Marc, Legally Bay, Rich Megadale, and the two emergencies are going to have it up against them.

Patezza - Needless to say this horse has been a revelation this spring, winning the G1 Doncaster Handicap. Has drawn out wide (15) but as a horse who gets back that shouldn't affect him too much (he had barrier 16 in the Doncaster. Huge show with genuine pace up front. Something of a concern after eight weeks out, but Guy Walter knows what he is doing.

Yell - On his day a top class horse so you wouldn't want to rule him out completely, but his last start was just too bad to be dismissed, so I won't be having him.

Takeover Target - With a bit of pace up front (from Osca Warrior, Regi Gal, and Wager) will hopefully be able to get a nice sit behind the leader which from barrier seven shouldn't be too hard. Has enough class here, but I think that $4 is prohibitively short.

St. Basil - Heartbreak horse who always charges home but never quite gets there. I can't see any significant factor to suggest today will be any exception.

Red Oog - Nice horse who may be able to get inside of them all from barrier one, but just seems to be a level below those he meets here.

Shamekha - Gai has done a brilliant job with this mare, setting her to win the T.J Smith first up over Alinghi and Fastnet Rock, and then backing up to win the All Aged Stakes. Just a genuine classy horse who should race forward of midfield, and with Australia's number one jockey Darren Beadman on board, has a hell of a lot going for her at $4.50. The one to beat in my opinion, especially with the sting out of the track, as she won both of those G1's on slow tracks (yes, the All Aged track was rated good, but they ran the last 600m in 38 seconds).

Regimental Gal - Returned very nicely last start to lead most of the way before fading for third in the BTC Cup, but the 1350m is a real stretch for this mare, and with a fair bit of pace up front, it is difficult to see her having the gas in the tank to hold them out. Only one start past 1200m and was beaten two lengths by Shamekha.

Our Egyptian Raine - Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see this mare win a G1. God knows I have backed her in enough of them, but I won't be tomorrow. The sad fact is that she doesn't win races, and it is a terrible habit to get out of, and I can't see that happening today. From barrier three has to be some chance however, and you can always back her for the place, although that is what I did in last years Emirates Stakes, and guess what, she came fourth.

Only Words - Barrier 20 really casts her out of this one, and I think WFA is not ideal for her (yes, I know she has come second at WFA in her past two starts). Add in the fact she was quite disgraceful at her last start and I think she can be cast aside.

Sky Cuddle - They fluked a G1 with her, and should be incredibly grateful, not push their luck by persisting with her in races of the class she cannot win. If the track was to become seriously wet she would be a chance however.

Wager - Did very well last start, but that run was a total gutbuster for her, and I think she left her best out there a fortnight ago. You can never underestimate Gai however, so she is one of a number with a rough show.

This is a very tough race to pick, but I think if you went each way on Shamekha at $4.50, you have a very good chance of seeing your money again, and hopefully a bit more.

My top five:

1 - Shamekha
2 - Patezza
3 - Takeover Target
4 - Our Egyptian Raine
5 - St. Basil

Outsider: Yell (30-1)

With a field of 20 things could go any way, so I wouldn't be having the house on.

Other tips:

Melbourne

6/4 - Lord Volksraad - PLACE

8/5 - Nuts About Jugah - Bolted in up the bush last start, in an open race, which is a pretty good form line for this, and has been placed twice at the Valley before.

Just on last week quickly

Goodwood: I said I'd quit if Foreplay won - he came last by about 15 lengths. My tip, Ellicorsam was scratched.

SA Derby: Threedee, my tip, failed to repeat last weeks excellent effort and came a poorly 11th.

PM's Cup: I said not to back Perlin @ $1.90 - and I was right.

Hollindale: The debacle with the flight and the upset it would have caused Roman Arch would have been worth at least a long neck in my opinion. Nevertheless, he didn't win, and that is what matters - once again Gai has done a great job with Platinum Scissors.