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January 24, 2006

Wednesday 25/1

Been away a little but looking forward to getting back into the tipping action, the highlight being the G2 Carlyon Stakes.

Geelong

R6, no.12: Wenceslas Square

George Hanlon has finally worked out this horse who went for 23 starts without a win. Has since won two in a row, and ready to go right on with it here.

R8, no.6: Convention

Magnificently bred, by outstanding sire Zabeel out of Golden Slipper winner Merlene. Only one problem with this horse - he is a psycho. Nevertheless, Danny Nikolic is a jockey who should be able to restrain him and get the most out of him. If so, will run well. Main danger is Lee Freedman trained Pinsemtoit who won a maiden at Moonee Valley in October and has since been spelled.

Canterbury (Night)

Race 2, no.4: Snowden. Class above this lot. Will be fairly short.

Race 3, no.2: Jerusha. Been racing consistently and has a good opportunity to break through here. Weak field.

Race 4: Maiden, so hard to be confident about anything. If I have to go with one, Heart Strings would be it, as it has been beaten by some fairly smart horses. Shouts is a half sister to G1 winner Yell.

Race 5, no.1: De Rigueur. Has been winning pretty well in the bush, and meets an ordinary lot here. In on the limit after claim. Won races at Newcastle and Kembla Grange, form lines which usually stand up well.

Race 6, no.4: Element. Lost on protest (wrongly in my view) last start. 'Winner' in a field of maidens. May be unders though. Look for about $4.

R7, no.5: Solomon's Seal. Hit line hard in Class 6 over 1000m. Gets a little further here, down in class, Beadman on. Best bet in Sydney.

Moonee Valley (night)

R1, no.1: Blizzardly

Formerly trained by Gai and now in the capable hands of David Hayes. Should be too classy here - Predestined for the quinella.

R2: Really open race with a number of chances. I honestly don't know.

R3, no.7: New Kid In Town

Another maiden - not a whole lot to go on, so I will stick with Lee Freedman and Noel Callow.

R4, no.4: Lula

Won Class 6 in metro class before going back down to contest Class 4 at Werribee - carrying 60 Kg. Had a nice freshen since then and with six kilos less is an excellent chance.

R5, no.8: Virage De Fortune

Let's be clear, there are three possible chances - Virage De Fortune, Spark of Life, and California Dane.

Spark of Life: Had excuses at Sandown defeat. Back to Moonee Valley, which he loves, having won two G1's here. Would prefer him with sting out of ground, but $6 on fixed odds is definitely overs.

California Dane: Boom summer horse. Has won three races at the Valley - all by three or four lengths. Broke track record last start - but don't get carried away - Landloper broke the Sandown 1600m track record last start. Massive talent, but taking $1.70 on him is silly business.

Virage De Fortune: I love this filly. Just love her. Has done more than California Dane, just has less sex appeal. Should sit outside Spark of Life, kick away at the turn, and try as California Dane might, he won't quite catch her.

Race 6. Can't say, extremely open race.

R7, no.5: Fordabool

Should be at good odds ($10 or so) and is worth a nice each way bet. Run behind You Sexy Boy here last start was good.

R8, no.2: Myalansky

Form lines behind Maxerelle and Sorenstam look good for this. Trapped wide when beaten just over a length in $40K race last start at Warrnambool.

Hope we have found a couple of winners there.

Posted by Tim in at January 24, 2006 07:15 PM

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